That counts for all betting strategies. Does not matter if you use the 22Bet login or others. But what is the most efficient way for you to become more successful?
The prophet:
I’ll just call this guy the prophet. This may sound derogatory at first, but I don’t mean it that way at all. On the contrary: I have the greatest respect for these people because they can do exactly what I can’t do myself despite my best efforts. They simply have a sixth sense, or rather the incredible gift of predicting match outcomes far more often than the average football expert. To put it simply: these types are only marginally interested in odds, stakes, statistics or even calculations. They simply intuitively bet correctly enough times to make a profit. Theoretically, it is not that difficult to be such a prophet. The odds – at least those on betting exchanges – purely reflect the average opinion of the market as a whole. Any bettor who is right above the average of the market basically belongs to this category. However, in order to convert this into “real financial profit”, this expert must be more than 2% (example Smarkets) above the market average. This is because the Smarkets commission (which is currently 2%) or the average that the bookmaker wants to achieve (which is usually even more) has to be earned first.
The strategist:
Since I, like many others, do not have this “sixth sense” with which the prophet makes his profits, I (like so many fellow sufferers) am looking for another way to make a profit – despite my only average result prediction. Burdened with this “handicap”, you inevitably become a strategist. In other words, you look for strategies that will put you on the winning track with a trick, a gimmick or some other “secret”.
And as many fellow sufferers are struggling with precisely this problem, another industry is booming, which is somehow hanging on the coat-tails of the betting industry and benefiting from the frustration of many participants: The providers of e-books with 100% profit opportunities. Let’s be honest! Anyone who has come up with such a brilliant idea that they are able to practically print money with a strategy will do the devil and bring this brilliant idea to the people for 39 pounds (usually the offers are aimed at the English market). So what do you get from such providers? Either worn-out strategies (the “lay the draw” in any form, or other wacky methods that unfortunately only worked in a short period of time – this random period of success is therefore ridden on in the offer until “no longer works”).
To cut a long story short: such ebooks are usually only good for broadening your own horizons (and that’s a very positive way of putting it) in order to develop strategies that might work.
Sooner or later, the strategist comes to the following logical solution. I have to find bets with value. Value simply means that the bet offered is worth more than what would be the fair price according to statistical probability. If I bet like this, I will only make a profit in the long term. If not, the statistics are not correct and I have not bet “real” value.
Now, of course, the question arises: How is value created? It’s quite simple. With bookmakers, there is only value if the bookmaker himself makes a mistake, assesses an event incorrectly and thus offers odds that are too high. Until a few years ago, this was not so rare. Many bookmakers were simply overwhelmed by the huge range of leagues, games and special features and often made the odds “pi times thumbs” according to tables, leaving plenty of room for connoisseurs to find and use value bets. I have an acquaintance who has made a living from this for over 10 years. I only found out his “secret” about value betting a year ago when things weren’t going so well and he started moaning:
“It doesn’t work anymore, unfortunately they hardly make any mistakes, even with live betting there are hardly any gaps for profit”. For years, I knew from his best friend that he made a living from betting, but even after a few beers at barbecues, he wouldn’t say anything about how he was doing. Fortunately, today there are not only bookmakers, but also betting exchanges.
So how is value created on betting exchanges? It’s quite simple and logical. The moment too many bets are placed on an event, the high demand causes the odds to fall. Inevitably, the odds rise to the opposite – and these odds gain value. How much this is depends on the “exaggeration”. Of course, you can also assume that the masses are “right”. To a certain extent, it is. However, as with stock markets, people are “pack animals”. A falling share price feeds the “want to have” effect. Everyone still wants to be in (if everyone wins…). And just as not everyone has become a millionaire on the stock markets, those who swim against the tide and discover and take the value in the opposite of the big “people’s bet” have also won here.
